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In this project co-sponsored by the Department of Defense and IARPA, we used epidemiological outbreak modeling to predict the frequency of violent events in the Middle East. By modeling periodic spikes in violence as disease outbreaks, we were able to model violence as a combination of two separate processes: a baseline rate and an outbreak rate.
Ultimately we modeled the rate of violence as a linear regression, and this robust technique won the Milestone 1 prize for Best Overall Predictor of Civil Unrest in the Middle East.
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